I'm repeating Elon Musk when I say it is highly likely he feels the odds are a trillion to one that we are. He makes this observation that we will in the very near future be able to make universes inside our computers perhaps for problem solving value or something.
So if the universe has other intelligent life which has surpassed our present state in the sciences then we need to factor them in and the possibility that perhaps we are a simulation then with all these simulated universes around the odds a re pretty high that we are in a simulation rather than a naturally occurring universe. In which case the odds of a trillion to one maybe a very conservative figure.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/16/opinion/sunday/is-the-universe-a-simulation.html?_r=0
We don’t know. But one fanciful possibility is that we live in a computer simulation based on the laws of mathematics — not in what we commonly take to be the real world. According to this theory, some highly advanced computer programmer of the future has devised this simulation, and we are unknowingly part of it. Thus when we discover a mathematical truth, we are simply discovering aspects of the code that the programmer used.
This may strike you as very unlikely. But the Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom has argued that we are more likely to be in such a simulation than not. If such simulations are possible in theory, he reasons, then eventually humans will create them — presumably many of them. If this is so, in time there will be many more simulated worlds than nonsimulated ones. Statistically speaking, therefore, we are more likely to be living in a simulated world than the real one.